Three Key Barriers to Refugee Repatriation from Bangladesh: A Crisis Stuck in the Mud

Aung Naing Lin, Opinion

Global Arakan Network September 27, 2025

Bangagya Refugees in Bangladesh (photocrd)

The Bangagya (Rohingya) refugee crisis, with over a million people languishing in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar camps, is a human tragedy that feels like it’s been stuck in quicksand for years. The text lays out three big reasons why getting these folks back to their homes in Rakhine State (or Arakan, as it’s historically called) is hitting a brick wall: the Myanmar junta’s relentless attacks on civilians and Arakan Army (AA)-controlled areas, the chaos caused by Bangagya militant groups like ARSA and RSO, and Bangladesh’s chokehold on trade and humanitarian aid.

These aren’t just logistical hurdles—they’re a toxic mix of violence, mistrust, and politics that’s keeping refugees trapped and pushing more to flee. As of September 2025, with Rakhine teetering on the edge of famine and bodies piling up, this mess is screaming for a way out.

The Junta’s War Machine Keeps Raining Hell

First up, the Myanmar junta’s military campaign is making Rakhine a no-go zone for anyone dreaming of going home. The text nails it: air strikes, ground offensives, and even naval shelling near Bangladesh’s waters are hammering AA-controlled areas, including Maungdaw, where many Bangagya once lived. Picture this: on January 8, 2025, a junta airstrike flattened Kyauk Ni Maw village, killing 41 people—mostly women and kids—and torching 500 homes.

Just last weeks, on September 13, another strike hit two schools in Kyauktaw, wiping out 22 students. The junta’s lost huge chunks of Rakhine to the AA—80% of the state, including their Western Command HQ in Ann last December—so they’re lashing out with everything they’ve got. Over 100 civilians have been killed in airstrikes this year alone, and that’s not counting the ground assaults or naval barrages creeping closer to Bangladesh’s border.

Students Killed by the Junta Air Strikes (photocrd)

But it’s not just bombs. The junta’s still peddling its old playbook: denying Bangagya citizenship, calling them “Bengalis,” and stripping them of basic rights under the 1982 Citizenship Law. Even when they talk repatriation—like approving 180,000 returns in April—it’s a sham. They don’t control Maungdaw, and they’ve got no interest in treating Muslims as equals.

Since the 2021 coup, the UN says over 75,000 people have died nationwide, with Rakhine taking a massive hit—civilian deaths from airstrikes are up 2,563% since then. Who’d return to that? The junta’s not just making Rakhine a warzone; they’re ensuring it’s a graveyard for hope. If we want repatriation, the world needs to hit the junta where it hurts—sanctions on their aviation fuel supply could ground those jets.

ARSA and RSO: Turning Desperation into Chaos

Then there’s the second hurdle: ARSA and RSO, Bangagya militant groups that are making a bad situation worse. The text calls them out for “terrorist activities,” and that’s not just hyperbole. These guys are running amok along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, attacking civilians and AA forces alike.

On April, ARSA fighters slipped into Arakan border, sparking chaos that shut down shops as people hid. By August, they launched a full-on assault on AA outposts in Taungpyoletwea, killing locals with hundreds of gunmen. RSO’s no better—they’re in cahoots with ARSA, kidnapping people, extorting cash, and even recruiting kids as young as 15, sometimes with the junta’s backing.

Hindus Civilians Killed by ARSA in 2017 (photocrd)

This isn’t just about fighting the AA. These groups are terrorizing their own people too. In Cox’s Bazar camps, ARSA and RSO run extortion rackets and commit sexual violence, scaring the hell out of refugees who might otherwise want to go back. Their August 24 boat raids from the Naf River, shooting up AA posts, show they’re not slowing down.

The text is dead-on: as long as these groups keep up their attacks, repatriation is a pipe dream. Nobody—Bangagya, Rakhine, or otherwise—is safe in Maungdaw when militants can cross the border and start shooting. The AA says ARSA’s working with the junta to destabilize their control, which makes sense when you see reports of joint recruitment drives. Fixing this means cracking down on these groups in the camps—Bangladesh needs to step up security, and Bangagya community leaders have to push back against this radicalization. Otherwise, it’s just more blood and fear.

Bangladesh’s Aid Blockade: Starving Out Hope

The third barrier is a gut punch: Bangladesh’s decision to block trade and humanitarian aid into Rakhine since early 2025. The text lays it bare—Dhaka’s shut down UN and NGO deliveries, citing security risks from the AA’s border control. This isn’t just a policy hiccup; it’s a disaster.

Over 1.4 million people in Rakhine are cut off from food, medicine, and basics, with famine warnings flashing red. The UN’s 2024 aid appeal was only 34% funded, and 2025’s $1.1 billion target is tanking too, partly because of U.S. cuts slashing $259 million from Myanmar’s relief budget. Since January, 40,000 more Bangagya have fled to Bangladesh, driven by hunger as much as violence.

Border Guard Bangladesh Blocking Assistance into Arakan (photocrd)

Dhaka’s in a tough spot—hosting over several hundred thousand of refugees is a massive burden, especially after its own political upheaval in 2024. They tried a UN humanitarian corridor in April, but backed off after their army called it a potential “bloody corridor” and pushed back 9,000 refugees at the border. Now, aid’s stuck at UN-supervised border drops, and even those are spotty. The text is right: this blockade isn’t helping repatriation—it’s driving more people out.

Without food or medicine, Rakhine’s a death trap, and no refugee’s going to return to starvation. Bangladesh needs to open trade routes and let aid flow, maybe with ULA cooperation. But with Dhaka worried about its own stability and the AA seen as a wildcard, that’s a tall order.

What’s Next?

These three barriers—junta attacks, militant chaos, and aid blockades—are like a three-headed monster eating away at any chance of repatriation. The junta’s bombs and bigotry keep Rakhine a warzone; ARSA and RSO turn Bangagya desperation into violence; and Bangladesh’s aid chokehold starves out hope. It’s a vicious cycle: over 6,000 civilians have died since the 2021 coup, and Rakhine’s 2 million people are on the brink. The AA’s pushing a federalist vision that could give Muslims a real stake—citizenship, jobs, schools—but they’re stuck fighting on two fronts.

Breaking this deadlock means thinking big. ASEAN and neighboring countries could lean on the junta with more effective pressures to stop the airstrikes. Bangladesh needs to secure its camps and work with the AA on safe aid routes, maybe with UN monitors to ease tensions.

Bangagya leaders have to denounce ARSA and RSO to rebuild trust. And the world and key stakeholders need to fund the UN’s appeals and mediate a deal that puts people over politics. Until then, the Bangagya are stuck in limbo, and Rakhine’s just a battlefield with no end in sight.