Old Bottle and Old Wine: Why Elections and Changes in Myanmar Are Only Illusions

Opinion January 4, 2025

People always hope for real change when times get hard. New leaders, new rules, new paths forward—these promises pull crowds and spark dreams. Yet in Myanmar today, the junta's push for elections feels like a tired trick. Old wine poured into an old bottle: same bitter taste, same weak container. No fresh start, just a repaint of the same broken system. True progress demands more than staged votes—it needs root-level shifts that the generals refuse to allow.

The junta rolls out phased elections starting December 28, 2025, followed by January 11 and 25, 2026. They claim this brings democracy back after years of direct rule. But look closer: voting skips whole regions lost to resistance forces, leaving out millions. Opposition parties face bans or heavy limits, while military-backed groups dominate the field. Turnout stays low in many spots, driven by fear more than excitement. The result? A parliament packed with junta allies, lacking real voice from the people. This body holds little true power anyway—key choices stay locked in military hands.

At the core sits the 2008 constitution, built to shield the generals forever. It hands them 25 percent of seats outright, no election needed. Amendments need over 75 percent approval, giving the military an iron veto on any fix. They control defense, borders, and home affairs directly. Even peace talks and federal dreams bend to their say-so. Without touching this charter, any "elected" government remains a puppet show. The same faces in Naypyidaw pull strings, keeping executive, legislative, and judicial branches under tight grip. Pseudo-democracy at best: civilian clothes over military boots.

Real change cannot sprout from this soil. The generals cling to old mindsets—central control, fear over trust, force over talk. They crushed protests, jailed leaders, and waged war on ethnic groups and pro-democracy fighters. This election aims to polish their image abroad, maybe ease sanctions or gain nods from neighbors. But it fools no one inside the country. People see through the illusion: votes under gunpoint, results pre-drawn, power unchanged.

Genuine shifts come from the other side—from resistance forces building parallel systems in liberated zones, from ethnic alliances pushing federal ideas, from people risking all for justice and equality. These groups run courts, schools, and aid networks that serve real needs. They draft charters for a new union where power shares fairly, rights protect all, and no veto blocks progress. Only when dictatorship falls root and branch can fresh wine fill a new bottle.

Myanmar's story repeats old patterns: promises of change that protect the powerful. The 2025-2026 polls prove it again—surface tweaks hiding deep control. Until the people force a full break, illusions will keep flowing. But cracks grow wider each day. Resistance builds strength, unity spreads, and the old bottle nears its shatter point. True dawn waits not in junta halls, but in the hands of those fighting for a real new day.