Why Autonomous Arakan Is Better for Bangladesh Interests in The Region

Aung Naing Lin, Opinion January 8, 2026

Nation-states guard their borders fiercely in a world of shifting powers and new tech threats. History shows regional powers/neighbors often back new states when it suits them—Bangladesh itself rose with strong Indian help in 1971. Today, Dhaka watches Myanmar's ethnic struggles closely, especially the push for self-rule in the west. Fears run high about spillover, refugees, and instability. Yet a highly autonomous Arakan under local control could serve Bangladesh far better than the old central grip from Naypyidaw.

The Arakan Army and its political wing fight for confederate-style autonomy within Myanmar, not full split or grabs across borders. Leaders stress self-determination inside current lines, modeling after strong ethnic enclaves elsewhere. No signs point to claims on Chittagong Hill Tracts land—ties there stay cultural and family-based among shared kin like Marma communities. A self-governing Arakan can build direct bridges with Dhaka, working together on shared issues like trade, culture, and development for cross-border peoples. Joint efforts could boost schools, health, and roads, easing old tensions without threats to sovereignty.

The biggest headache for Bangladesh remains Rohingya refugees problem, a crisis born from junta cruelty. Naypyidaw blocks real returns, using the issue for leverage while offering no safety. An autonomous Arakan changes that game. Local leaders now run most northern towns and push for stability through inclusion—opening administration roles to Muslims, rebuilding trust, and creating conditions for safe repatriation. Without central interference, deals become practical: phased returns with guarantees, monitored zones, and aid flows. Dhaka already talks quietly with these authorities on border calm and refugee paths. A stronger autonomous setup means a real partner next door, not a distant hostile regime.

Refugees In Bangladesh

Direct engagement brings clear wins. Trade can grow along the Naf River without double taxes or blocks. Security cooperation curbs smuggling, arms flows, and unwanted militants. Humanitarian corridors open faster for aid to war-hit areas, cutting new refugee waves. With fresh leadership in Dhaka post-2025 shifts, resetting ties makes sense—move from restriction to empowerment, backing local governance that prioritizes peace over conflict.

Risks linger if central control drags on: more airstrikes, forced recruitment, and chaos spilling over. But autonomy builds buffers. Local rule focuses inward on rebuilding, not outward fights. It aligns with federal dreams many ethnic forces share, potentially stabilizing the whole region.

Smart neighbors choose cooperation over confrontation. An autonomous Arakan offers Bangladesh a stable frontier, refugee solutions, and economic links. Empowering this reality serves security, humanity, and growth far better than clinging to a failing old order. The path forward lies in pragmatic ties—turning shared borders from burdens into bridges for lasting regional calm.