How ULA/AA Becomes A Key Holder For The Real Impacts of ICC Ruling on “Rohingya Case”?

Opinion January 12, 2026

The long fight for justice after the 2017 military violence against the Rohingya community drags on slowly. It raises big questions about how international law works when great powers clash — the US-led West pushes hard, China-led East blocks, and middle powers stay neutral. Why has the ICC not yet issued a final arrest warrant for Min Aung Hlaing, like it did quickly for Putin over Ukraine or Netanyahu over Gaza? The delay shows real limits in global justice.

Three main reasons explain this gap. First, Western interest stays low. Europe and Canada do not feel the same pressure or stakes in the Arakan Muslim crisis as they do in Ukraine or Gaza. Second, ground access blocks solid proof. ICC teams reached Ukraine and Palestine areas to gather strong evidence. In northern Arakan, no such access exists. Most evidence comes from refugees in Bangladesh, not fresh on-site facts. Third, proving chain of command proves hard. Did Min Aung Hlaing directly order the large-scale attacks? Without clear proof, the ICC hesitates to target top leaders.

In this stuck situation, the United League of Arakan / Arakan Army (ULA/AA) now holds the real keys to unlock progress. With strong control over much of Rakhine State, including northern areas, the ULA/AA can open doors that others cannot. Ground access becomes possible through their territory. They hold high-level POWs and detainees from the Myanmar military. These captives could provide direct testimony on orders, operations, and command links from 2017. If handled wisely, such evidence could strengthen the ICC case, fill gaps in refugee stories, and build a stronger chain of command link to Min Aung Hlaing.

This role carries weight. The ICC prosecutor requested an arrest warrant for Min Aung Hlaing in late 2024 for crimes against humanity like deportation and persecution. More warrants may follow. But real impact needs more than requests — it needs concrete, on-ground proof. ULA/AA control makes that possible in ways the junta never allowed. Cooperation could speed up investigations and push for accountability.

ULA Chairman Met Muslim Leaders in Maungdaw

At the same time, smart choices matter. Muslim community leaders, activists, and allies must avoid pushing ULA/AA leaders into a corner with emotional or non-strategic demands. Such pressure creates division, not unity. Past tensions between communities run deep. Forcing confrontations risks more harm and closes doors to cooperation. Instead, calm dialogue and shared goals can build trust. Justice for victims serves everyone in Arakan. Unity among local groups strengthens the push against the real source of past violence — the military regime.

The ULA/AA's position is not simple. They fight a tough war while managing complex local issues. Their control brings responsibility. If they open access fairly and share key information, the ICC process gains real power. This could lead to lasting impacts — stronger cases, more accountability, and perhaps steps toward peace in the region.

The struggle for justice remains long. But with ULA/AA as a key holder, the path forward looks clearer. Wise actions now can turn delays into real change. The focus must stay on facts, evidence, and unity — not division. Only then can international rulings bring true relief to those who suffered.