Myanmar Military Will Not Be Able to Come Back to Arakan: Myanmar Expert Argues

News Analysis ၊ April 21, 2026

Junta Soldiers Surrendering to Arakan Army During Maungdaw Battle and Photo of Steve Rosss (source@aainfodesk/interviewfile)

Steve Ross is a Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center, a Washington, D.C.-based foreign policy think tank. He leads a project focused on the crisis in Myanmar's Rakhine State. On April 16, 2026, he sat down for a talk (Title: Rakhine's Reckoning: War, Refugees, and a Region on the Edge) with Alap, a program based in Bangladesh.

During that conversation, he made a bold claim. The Myanmar military will not be able to come back to Arakan due to three key factors: the Arakan Army's entrenched position, the geographic advantage of the Roma mountain range, and the popular hostility toward the junta. For those living in this land, his words simply confirm what has already been written in blood and patience. That door has closed.

Ross points to three reasons. First, the Arakan Army (AA) is no longer a small rebel group. It has dug deep roots. After pushing out most junta troops, the AA now controls the ground with firm hands. They have built systems of rule, security, and supply. Removing them is not a simple task. It would require a force the Myanmar military no longer has.

Second, the land itself fights for the AA. The Roma Mountain range is a natural fortress. It breaks supply lines. It hides movement. It punishes any offensive from the plains. The junta can send in troops, but the mountains will swallow them. This is not guesswork. It is geography. And geography does not change for weak armies.

Third, and most painful for the junta, is the people. The local population does not welcome the military. They fear it. They hate it. They have seen too many burned villages and too many dead bodies. Meanwhile, the AA is seen as their own. It speaks their language. It respects their customs. It fights for their soil. A military cannot win a war when every villager is an enemy scout.

Ross also makes a larger point. In northern Shan State, the junta clawed back some land. But that was different. The terrain was kinder. The local support was weaker. In Arakan, both factors work against them. The AA commander has promised to free the remaining towns of Kyaukphyu and Sittwe before the end of 2027 or later.