Why China and India Should Be Concerned by Growing Islamic Jihadist Activities along the Bangladesh Border

Kyaw Zan, Opinion

Global Arakan Network October 20, 2025

Chinese and Indian Investment Sites in Arakan (photocrd)

In the volatile cauldron of Rakhine's borderlands, where the Naf River whispers secrets of insurgency, a pernicious escalation unfolds: ARSA and RSO militants, entrenched in Bangladeshi sanctuaries, unleash a torrent of cross-border aggression that erodes regional stability like acid on steel. This surge, amplified in recent weeks, morphs from dormant menace to active sabotage, targeting Arakan Army (AA) outposts and ensnaring innocent civilians in a web of terror.

No longer confined to shadowy camps, these groups' audacity signals a calculated bid to destabilize Arakan's hard-won gains, imperiling the economic lifelines threaded by Beijing and New Delhi. As October 2025 witnesses AA's dominion over 16 townships, this militant resurgence—fueled by external patrons—demands a recalibration: regional powers must pivot toward bolstering ULA/AA governance, lest their multibillion-dollar ventures dissolve into chaos.

Probe the first strand of this tangled threat: the burgeoning terrorist footprint of ARSA and RSO, long festering in Bangladesh's underbelly but now erupting with unprecedented ferocity. These outfits, branded terrorists by Myanmar and Malaysia, have ramped up incursions, ambushing AA border sentinels and unleashing carnage on non-Muslim villagers.

Recent clashes, like the October 4 assault on Arakanese positions, left ARSA cadres wounded and fleeing to Bangladeshi soil, exposing a porous frontier riddled with complicity. What elevates this from routine skirmishes to strategic peril is the militants' pivot toward inland Arakan, where hit-and-run tactics sow discord amid AA's consolidation. Civilians, caught in the crossfire, endure abductions and executions, their plight amplified by propaganda mills portraying AA as aggressors.

This isn't mere opportunism; it's a deliberate attack on AA's authority, fracturing communal harmony in a region clawing back from junta-induced anarchy. As ULA statements decry these as "terrorist operations," the ripple effects cascade: heightened border tensions stifle trade, displace communities, and invite junta reprisals, all while militants exploit refugee camps as recruitment hubs. The calculus is stark—unchecked, this militancy metastasizes, transforming Arakan's renaissance into a quagmire.

Unravel the second layer: the grotesque theater of deception where ARSA and RSO militants ensnare locals, only to dispatch them in macabre displays of faux triumph. Border villagers, mere bystanders in this grim pageant, face arbitrary detention, torture, and slaughter, their bodies clad in pilfered uniforms to fabricate victories against AA phantoms. This psychological warfare, rooted in paranoia over exposure, amplifies terror: a Rakhine farmer vanishes, only to resurface as "evidence" of militant prowess in viral dispatches.

Such tactics, honed in Cox's Bazar's labyrinthine camps, not only demoralize Arakanese communities but also inflame ethnic fissures, pitting Buddhist and Muslim populations in a cycle of mistrust. The irony bites deep—these groups, invoking divine mandates, perpetrate atrocities that echo the junta's playbook, yet evade accountability under Bangladeshi umbrellas.

ARSA Terrorists inside Bangladesh (photocrd)

As AA-led forces dismantle junta reinforcements, militants' desperation manifests in these barbaric ploys, underscoring a broader strategy: sow chaos to reclaim lost ground in northern Arakan. The human toll mounts—hundreds abducted since 2024—while the militants' narrative war, amplified by junta proxies, seeks to delegitimize AA's liberation ethos.

Now, confront the third nexus: the unholy alliance between Myanmar's junta and Bangladeshi security organs, birthing this militant hydra that indirectly besieges Chinese and Indian stakes in Arakan. Naypyidaw arms these fanatics with rifles and RPGs, while DGFI and BGB orchestrate logistics, training, and intelligence— a symbiotic predation exposed by ULA indictments. This collusion funnels contraband through seven border veins, transforming camps into arsenals and hill tracts into militant redoubts.

The fallout? India's Kaladan corridor, snaking through Paletwa and Sittwe, lies perilously proximate to these flashpoints; militant incursions could sabotage infrastructure, endanger personnel, and throttle New Delhi's Northeast gateway. Dhaka's hardliners, perhaps in ISI's shadow, might wield this chaos as leverage to stymie connectivity, amplifying threats from "Greater Bangladesh" specters.

Map of Greater Bangladesh Promoted by Some Extremist Factions (photocrd)

For China, Kyaukphyu's deep-sea port and pipelines—linchpins of Belt and Road—face subtler but insidious jeopardy: escalating extremism could ignite communal tinder in the Uyghur-echoing Islamic milieu, sparking violence that halts operations. Both titans share a vested imperative: pressure Naypyidaw and Dhaka to dismantle these networks, channeling support toward ULA/AA's stabilizing rule. AA's pledges to safeguard investments—evidenced by junta-free zones—offer a bulwark against jihadist sprawl.

The hourglass drains: Arakan's stability hangs by a thread, woven from foreign capital yet frayed by militant blades. China and India must awaken to this convergence—bolster ULA/AA's ascendancy, quash junta-Bangladeshi duplicity, and secure their footholds. Delay invites calamity: projects stalled, lives shattered, a region regressing to abyss. Act now, and Arakan transforms from flashpoint to fulcrum of prosperity.