Is Pakistan Meddling in Islamic-Rohingya Militancy to Disrupt India's Kaladan Project?

Twan Naing, Contributing Author

Global Arakan Network November 25, 2025

The Kaladan River cuts through Rakhine like a vein, carrying dreams of trade from distant ports to quiet villages. For years, it promised a lifeline: India's grand plan to link Kolkata's bustle to Mizoram's hills, bypassing the choked roads of the northeast. Sittwe's port gleams with fresh concrete, ready for ships heavy with cargo.

Yet shadows gather along the banks. Gunfire echoes from the mangroves, where militants slip across borders like ghosts. Pakistan's hand, long suspected in distant plots, now reaches here, stoking fires that threaten to drown the project in chaos. The question burns: Is Islamabad pulling strings to shatter this bridge before it stands?

Rivals do not fade quietly. India and Pakistan have danced this deadly waltz since partition's blood-soaked dawn. Each views the other as a serpent coiled at the throat—security threats whispered in war rooms, from Kashmir's peaks to the Arabian Sea. Tensions simmer, then boil: border skirmishes, cyber jabs, proxy wars in shadowed valleys.

Bangladesh, born from their 1971 clash, once tilted toward Delhi's warmth. No more. The Awami League's fall in 2024 unleashed a storm. Hasina's ouster left Dhaka's streets alive with student fire, but also with old ghosts. The interim government, led by Yunus, warms to old foes. Pakistan's envoys flock to meetings, inking deals on trade, jets, and quiet nods to shared borders. Pro-Islamic currents swirl among the youth in power, whispers of anti-India sentiment laced with anti-Hindu barbs. India watches its doorstep crack.

Encircling foes demands cunning moves. Afghanistan's Taliban, once Pakistan's unruly child, now courts Delhi's gold. Uneasy truces in Kabul leave Islamabad boxed in—India's shadow long across the Hindu Kush. Rebalance calls for fresh fronts. Enter Bangladesh: a wedge to pry open eastern flanks. Yunus's regime, with its student pulse and Islamic lean, fits the mold.

Ties bloom fast. In July 2025, Pakistan's interior minister met Dhaka's home adviser, hashing out counter-terror pacts that mask deeper games. Rohingya camps in Cox's Bazar swell with 1.2 million souls, a powder keg of despair. Here, militancy festers. ARSA and RSO, Rohingya arms born of 2017's flames, draw recruits from the mud and misery. Bangladesh's agencies, once stern, now turn a blind eye—or worse, lend a hand. Reports paint a covert pact: Dhaka's intelligence and Myanmar's junta revive ARSA near Mizoram's edge. The goal? A jihadist hive in Chattogram, buzzing with threats to spill over.

October 9 Celebration of ARSA Joined by Myanmar Junta Officials

Pakistan's shadow looms large, its terror ledger stained from Kabul to Mumbai. The ISI, that gray maestro, excels at proxies. Lashkar-e-Taiba, born in Lahore's mosques, funnels arms and zeal to ARSA's ranks. Ataullah abu Ammar Jununi, ARSA's chief, trained in Pakistan's camps, his voice a echo of old Afghan wars. Funds flow from Rohingya exiles in Karachi and Riyadh, but Islamabad's touch is clear: videos of ARSA parades show uniformed guests from Bangladesh and Myanmar's forces, celebrating "Happy 9th October Day" in October 2025. Attacks mount.

In August, ARSA struck Arakan Army camps in Taung Pyo Let Ya, resulting in the deaths of its own terrorists. September saw more clashes in Rakhine's hills, bullets tracing the Mayu range. By November, 40 Rakhine civilians lay dead from ARSA raids in 2025—farmers in Buthidaung, families in Maungdaw. The Arakan Army (AA), our Buddhist kin fighting for Rakhine's dawn, guards the Kaladan's northern stretch. Weaken them, and the river turns to a grave.

The Kaladan Multimodal Project, India's $484 million bet, hangs by threads. From Sittwe's docks, 158 kilometers of waterway snake to Paletwa, then 110 kilometers of road to Zorinpui's gate. It slashes Kolkata-Mizoram hauls by 1,328 kilometers, easing the Siliguri pinch. But Paletwa fell to AA in January 2024, a prize that chokes junta supply lines.

Pakistan Army Chief in Bangladesh

Now ARSA nips at AA's heels, cross-border raids sowing doubt. If AA buckles, militants swarm the ports, the roads, the river. India's workers, once safe under joint patrols, now dodge ambushes. The project stalls: dredging done, but highways scar the earth unfinished. Beijing's Kyaukphyu port thrives nearby, China's grip unyielding. Delhi's vision? A casualty of imported hate.

Hidden agendas fester like monsoon rot. ARSA claims self-defense, but graves tell another tale: Hindus slain in 2017 massacres, Rakhine villages torched in 2025. RSO clashes with ARSA in camps, both recruiting child soldiers, both backed by whispers from Naypyidaw and Dhaka. Pakistan's play? Bleed India's east, fan flames that leap to Manipur or Tripura. Refugees flood Mizoram, narco routes bloom, jihadist cells root in the hills. We see the signs: ISI drones over Ramu, arms smuggled by sea. Yet proof dances in shadows—leaked videos, seized rifles etched with Urdu script. India frets, but acts slow: joint ops with Myanmar fade as junta crumbles.

Dawn breaks uneven here. The Kaladan could bind us—trade flowing, villages lit, Rakhine's wounds scarred over. But meddling poisons the flow. Pakistan's game risks a wider blaze: Bangladesh's camps ignite, AA fractures, Delhi's corridor crumbles. Stability demands sharp eyes.

Quiet diplomacy with AA, iron borders with Dhaka, pressure on Islamabad's envoys. Let the river run free, not red. For now, sentries watch the mangroves, rifles cold, waiting for the next shadow to stir. The stakes? Not just concrete and cranes, but the fragile peace of a frontier long torn.