The UNDP’s Rakhine Report: A somber reading but actual solutions are simpler.

By Tun Oo, GAN                                                                        November 22, 2024

UNDP's Report Cover (Credit)

The drastic report of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), Rakhine: A Famine in the Making, on the potential risk of starvation made significant ripples in the international media, despite the dominant of dramatic news across the world, not least the re-election of Donald Trump. The report covers a list of complex causes that drive this critical risk. The report recommended four immediate steps that may need a sophisticated and complex implementation approach. More importantly, these recommendations are pivoting against the current trajectory of the political changes on the ground. As such, these are politically unrealistic and must be reconsidered to meet the realities of the Arakan Army’s impressive victories against the State Administrative Council (SAC) and its political wing, the United League for Arakan’s effort to create solid administrative and development programs.

The ground reality in Arakan demands three simple but effective solutions. They are:

1)     Support and invest in the local authorities set up by the ULA and local organisations in their efforts to address these challenges, rather than demanding separate mechanisms.

2)     Make the SAC stop the indiscriminate bombing of civilians and destroying civilian and transport infrastructure across Arakan, rather than playing safe to gain access to the illegitimate junta in Nay Pyi Daw.

3)     Work with the ULA to establish trade opportunities with neighbouring countries especially India and China to expand the so-called informal trade of essential goods into Arakan, as the SAC no longer controls the majority of Arakan.

These three simple solutions do not follow the typical international aid industry paradigm in addressing food insecurity or delivering aid projects. Because the challenges in Arakan are not typical conditions, even for the war-torn situation. The approach SAC has taken in Arakan is now beyond the ordinary situation and the UNDP and its ally agencies cannot blindly follow the business-as-usual approach.

The UNDP’s report describes the causes of food insecurities as the collapse of cultivation and fishery sectors, disruption of trade routes with other parts of Myanmar and Bangladesh, and the lack of employment opportunities from the total breakdown of the construction sector, the leading job market for Arakanese families. These factors have caused drastic rises in commodity prices: such as around a 10-fold increase for cooking oil in some areas; around four-fold for rice in most places; and five-fold for transportation costs across Arakan, as the trade and transport routes have ceased to function. These drastic price hikes are exacerbated by the collapse of the broader trade with Bangladesh as well as the near cessation of construction activities in Arakan. The 63% increase in the number of internally displaced people across Arakan is also noted as a cause for this impending famine risk.

Root Causes of the Crisis

Unfortunately, despite comprehensive data analysis, the UNDP report did not explicitly mention the real cause that created these drivers for the famine risks. It was the collective punishment used by the SAC that is causing this humanitarian disaster, nothing else. The report did not include how these economic and trade activities were mainly disrupted by the SAC’s indiscriminate airstrike and artillery attacks against civilian populations and the destruction of other critical infrastructure. Since November 2023, the Burmese junta has killed at least 735 civilians, while injuring nearly 1,600 of them. Intentionally targeting the local communities and various public infrastructures has caused major concerns for ordinary people. Such attacks against civilians not only destroyed towns and villages beyond the conflict frontlines, they also severely disrupted the livelihoods and ordinary economic activities.

 The junta troops have also destroyed at least 28 bridges across Arakan disrupting the trade and commercial networks, resulting in the dramatic decline of available goods in local communities. It is the Junta’s brutality against the civilians that creates the conditions for the famine risks. It is the Junta who destroyed all public and transport infrastructures stopping the flow of necessary goods required to meet the basic needs in Arakan. It is the destruction caused by the retreating troops of the junta and the continuous aerial bombardments of its fighter jets that cause human misery and hunger in Arakan.

Solutions already emerging in Arakan

In the meanwhile, as the Arakan Army progress its victorious march throughout Arakan against the SAC, its political wing has been establishing administrative systems and governance mechanisms to support the local communities. It has expanded its local administrative bodies and several departments to deliver services. The ULA/AA has not only managed to successfully remove the SAC troops from Arakan, but it has also taken up the governance responsibilities to restart the economic and social development across all communities. It has also enabled transborder trade of essential goods with its neighbour, India, albeit at a limited or restricted capacity.

With widespread popular support among all communities across Arakan, the ULA/AA is the legitimate political authority for all Arakanese communities. As they progress to remove all of SAC’s troops from Arakan, the local people will be looking to the ULA/AA, not the SAC, to deliver administrative services and development policies to address their economic and social needs. The genuine development partners of these people would also need to support strengthening the administrative capacity of the authorities and systems set up the popularly mandated ULA/AA.

Given this reality on the ground in Arakan/Rakhine, the following practical propositions are simple but effective in addressing the actual root causes that drive the famine risk for all communities in Arakan.

1)     Support and invest in the local authorities set up by the ULA and other local organisations in their efforts to address these food security and humanitarian challenges.

2)     Make the SAC stop the indiscriminate bombing of civilians and destroying civilian and transport infrastructure across Arakan.

3)     Work with the ULA to establish trade linkages with neighbouring countries especially India and China for increased supplies of essential goods, to drive down the prices and to kick start the local economies.