The Role of Diplomacy in Resolving Refugee Crisis on Arakan-Bangladeshi Border

Opinion ၊ July 24, 2026

Bangladesh Prime Minister and Arakan Chairman (photocrd)

The tragedy of August 2017 is now approaching its eighth anniversary. What began as a brutal military campaign against the Muslim population in northern Arakan has evolved into a prolonged humanitarian nightmare. The crimes committed during those dark days remain unaddressed. Justice has not been delivered, and the very same military machine, now under the continued leadership of Min Aung Hlaing, continues to terrorise its own citizens across Myanmar. The problem is no longer a regional sideshow; it is a festering wound that threatens the stability of the entire neighbourhood.

For years, Dhaka has exhausted every diplomatic channel available. It has held talks, signed agreements, and engaged in endless rounds of consultation with the Burmese authorities. Yet, these efforts have produced nothing of substance. The failure is not due to a lack of effort on Bangladesh’s part, but rather a fundamental mismatch of interests. Regional powers view Myanmar through the lens of geopolitics, not humanitarianism. Their investments, energy deals, and strategic partnerships outweigh the plight of displaced people. For them, stability under any regime is preferable to chaos. Consequently, Bangladesh’s concerns have been sidelined, treated as a minor inconvenience rather than a crisis requiring urgent action.

Compounding this diplomatic paralysis is the nature of the Burmese military itself. It is not a reliable partner for peace. The same tactics used against the Muslim community in 2017 are now being deployed against the Buddhist population elsewhere in the country. The military regime is a broken actor, incapable of offering constructive solutions. It remains an active obstacle, conducting targeted air and naval strikes against civilians in northern Arakan. Furthermore, it fuels division by spreading anti-Muslim narratives among the Buddhist majority and simultaneously fomenting anti-Rakhine sentiments among the Muslim populace by sponsoring extremist factions like ARSA. This deliberate strategy of sowing hatred ensures that the conflict remains unresolved, serving the military’s interest in perpetual chaos.

Female Muslim Soldiers of Arakan Army Performing Flood Relief Activities in Buthidaung (photocrd)

However, the landscape has shifted dramatically. The rise of the Arakan Army and the establishment of the Arakkha government in more than ninety percent of Arakan’s territory has introduced a new and potent variable into the equation. This is no longer a two-player game between Dhaka and Naypyidaw. The ground realities have changed, and diplomacy must adapt accordingly.

Since the Arakan Army solidified its control over northern Arakan in late 2024, a remarkable transformation has occurred. Communal violence has ceased entirely. Social cohesion is being rebuilt, and for the first time in decades, the Muslim community is participating openly in governance. They now serve as judges, policemen, governors, nurses, and even soldiers. These are roles that were unimaginable under the oppressive rule of the Burmese military. This integration is not a publicity stunt; it is a practical demonstration of a functioning administrative system that values inclusion over exclusion. It proves that the ULA-led government is not merely a military force, but a nascent political entity capable of managing complex social dynamics.

Given this reality, the ULA leadership now stands as the only constructive stakeholder with genuine potential to resolve the refugee crisis. They have the territorial control, the administrative capacity, and the local credibility to facilitate returns and ensure safety. The Burmese military, by contrast, is a destructive force that only perpetuates the problem.

This presents a strategic opening for Bangladesh. The new BNP government in power has an opportunity to break from the failed policies of the past. If they adopt a pragmatic and constructive approach towards the ULA leadership, common ground is achievable. The Arakan leaders have shown positive signals towards figures like Tarique Rahman and Kalila Rahman, indicating a willingness to engage in good faith.

The shared interests are clear and tangible. Border stability, cross-border trade, humanitarian aid channels, and a sustainable fishing system for both communities are not political luxuries; they are necessities. These are areas where cooperation yields immediate benefits for both sides. Active diplomatic negotiations between Dhaka and the Arakkha government should begin now. It is never too late to pursue a solution that prioritises human dignity over political expediency. The old framework is broken. A new diplomatic horizon is visible, and it is time to walk towards it.